Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 19.820376 21.563541 23.490631 25.799382 28.518058 31.654044 35.600258
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 17.249298 19.533415 22.244828 25.772644 30.357645 36.298950 44.930589
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 15.343088 17.869015 21.024969 25.397206 31.554432 40.395654 55.188092
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 14.072659 16.758961 20.257688 25.369931 33.106578 45.373558 69.265208
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 13.020218 15.772979 19.476340 25.125724 34.213816 49.982173 85.819456
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 12.156277 14.929638 18.760288 24.818401 35.097537 54.488652 106.238799
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 11.463677 14.245113 18.175497 24.593513 36.031135 59.444804 134.045228
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 10.890701 13.672426 17.683064 24.424029 37.000355 64.911673 173.623254
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 10.300174 13.025884 17.013017 23.857795 37.076626 68.357283 214.694163
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 10.124708 12.964796 17.224180 24.814139 40.425464 82.290244 388.855528
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 9.723502 12.537897 16.818360 24.611030 41.252048 89.600246 612.753448
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 9.412956 12.226026 16.568139 24.656400 42.656897 100.097734 1315.021249
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 9.143548 11.964059 16.383908 24.815682 44.430173 114.162572 8758.368502
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 8.886160 11.705077 16.183576 24.917941 46.113410 130.356655 NaN
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 8.582877 11.357508 15.807729 24.622218 46.671913 142.185960 NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 8.352160 11.112286 15.589542 24.624269 48.087787 162.002094 NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 8.104523 10.827548 15.283090 24.405004 48.811740 179.494238 NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 7.864596 10.544169 14.961288 24.118355 49.271859 197.006356 NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 7.652064 10.295833 14.686821 23.906825 49.936419 219.477159 NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 7.460709 10.073837 14.446496 23.746532 50.748283 247.966724 NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 7.228723 9.776415 14.054268 23.206908 50.133251 258.410580 NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 7.204629 9.819917 14.284828 24.119419 55.034841 388.192589 NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 7.038982 9.620827 14.055015 23.925915 55.739379 453.666451 NaN